The month is February 2017, after 5 years talking about earthquakes, I’m still chased by the single subject that still haunts me, writing about the “Big One” or as it is known by many, The Great Earthquake.

Scientists from countries such as Japan, Chile, Peru, and the US have entered a discussion about who will be the next to be hit by the massive earthquake. Newspapers around World interview their respective scientists who state that the event is on its way. During my research, I came across some data and I believe the numbers may give us a rough idea of where and when it should happen. Of course, the countries cited give the population information and assurance that everything will be fine. Or not?

The reason of my focus on the countries of The Ring of Fire, was always raise a question about the “Seismic Migrations” in addition to being able to someday predict earthquakes. The idea that an event over the magnitude of 9.0 can occur in California is not unprecedented, highly regarded agencies have, in recent months, raised this hypothesis and claim that it is imminent. The only difference is that they believe that this earthquake will occur in Northern California and I have good reasons to believe that it will, in fact, hit the Southern California in 3 years, or somewhere North of South America between 2024 and 2026.

Well! The question is always the same, how could anyone know that? The truth is that I don’t know, but I have developed a theory that has become quite convincing. I find it hard to believe those responsible will be able to understand my methodology, but like said a certain thinker “there are no easy methods to solve difficult problems” René Descartes.

The theory

The theory is quite simple, by monitoring earthquakes of similar magnitudes I have identified a pattern and using historical data and back testing confirmation, I could say on national television (Chile), where would the most recent earthquakes over 8.4 magnitude of the last 5 years.

In the first few minutes of the December 26th, 2004 1, an earthquake of a 9.3 magnitude occurred near Sumatra, the Indian Ocean. This event generated devastating waves that took away about 230,000 people in 14 different countries.  3.50 N; 95.72 E)-A

On March 11th, 2011, at 5:56 UTC, happened what was known as “The Great East Japan Earthquake” with a 9.1 magnitude with epicenter off the coast of Japan.

According to the authorities, there were 15894 confirmed deaths and more than 2500 people are still missing. (38.30 N; 142.50 E)-B

I know that correlate these events could be considered only speculation, but to apply the same logics to other events, Nepal (28.24 N; 84.74E) – A Bonin Islands (28.24 N; 84.74E) B, it was possible to send an early alert, 28 days before the event of La Serena, Chile. During a TV show of almost 1 hour, I spoke live to the whole Chile about earthquake risks that could go above an 8.0 magnitude for the city of La Serena. Well! The event occurred exactly on the time frame predicted and even the Tsunami ravaging the coastal region, the number of fatalities was only 12. The same model was applied to 8.5 event occurred on April 1st, 2014 reported 30 days before in several local TV shows. The data and coordinates are there for anyone to check the logic of the proposed theory. Who has intimacy with numbers and computers can try to relate the coordinates.

In summary, distance between point A and point B is the result of time interval and distance travelled. If the point C is California we have the range of approximately 7 years since the distance between point A and B are equal to distance between point B and Point C. Even more troubling is the fact that, if the event does not occur at point C, it will follow to the point D on an imaginary line somewhere in the northern part of South America between 2024 to 2026.

Califórnia

Of course, we’re talking about odds and potential sites already evaluated by professionals in their respective countries. Let’s start with the State of California or the South Coast border with Mexico. Following the logics, we have this site as more likely. This site has historical seismic events and for being located on the San Andreas fault, has been studied for years. Being the most populous US state, California has an increasing number of 37,253,956 inhabitants. According to a note from http://www.fool.com “If California were a country, it would be the seventh largest economy in the world, ahead of Brazil. I don’t think it’s hard to imagine what an event like that would do to the United States.

The Flaws

The San Andreas fault is the subject of the moment. It extends from North to South along 1,300 Km dividing the North American portion of the Pacific plate. It is one of the most studied in the world, since it is almost entirely on the surface of the Earth.

In 2015 Hollywood launched the movie “Earthquake” from Director Brad Peyton, with an apocalyptic screenplay. The film seems to anticipate the catastrophic effects in case of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault. But the fact is that fiction could subtly, be preparing psychologically thousands or millions of Californians for the worst. The seismic history in California were the earthquakes: Northridge (6.7 degrees) in 1994, Los Angeles, Loma Prieta (6.9 degrees), in San Francisco, in 1989, in addition to the 7.8 earthquake in 1906 that destroyed a large area in San Francisco, killing more than 3000 people.

My question is that much is said of the San Andreas fault but a fault less mentioned is the Cascadia fault, underwater with over 1100 kilometers, from the Canadian province of British Columbia to Northern California. It is in the zone of subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate and North American plate. The Cascadia fault has a destructive potential similar or even higher than the San Andreas fault, with a potential magnitude above nine degrees, that would be followed by related tsunamis analogous to those that devastated the northern coast of Japan in 2011. According to an article published by The New Yorker, several researchers reported that, in the coming decades, this failure may be active causing what they rated as “the greatest natural disaster in the history of the United States”. In the seismological history, can be found the 1700 earthquake, whose tsunami would have reached the coast of Japan.

Looking at these two flaws and its vicinity and history, I believe that adding my theory, the evidence presented here, is a hint.

The subject is delicate, given the regions with overpopulations being built along the faults. What makes me even more apprehensive is the fact that people responsible for local security, build schools, hospitals and even nuclear power plants on these areas.

The question about where it’s going to happen the next Big One is keeping many awake. Speculations made by own scientists make hostages those living in areas of risk, especially in the case of the San Andreas and Cascadia faults.

I invite each and every one to empty the minds and follow the evidence here presented to understand my theory. In debates and lectures in 4 continents, I have had hard conversations with leading names in the subject, without appropriate responses, so I keep researching.

“The world is ruled by letting things take their course”

Tao Te Ching (Section 48)

 

Meet my theory

http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/files/2012/12/poster_agu_small.pdf

 

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